Title: Increased Value and Reduced Reliability of Rooftop Solar in a Warming World
Date and Time: Tuesday, July 23. 11:00 a.m.
Location: Chemical & Biological Engineering Rm 202
Speaker: Michael Craig, University of Michigan
Abstract
As global energy systems transition to renewable energy, climate change is accelerating and will increasingly affect energy systems. This is not a future problem – most energy system investments made today will operate past 2050, as will many existing energy systems assets. This talk will survey two recent papers that highlight positive and negative effects of climate change on rooftop solar in the United States and globally. The first half of the talk explores the impact of climate change on the economic value of rooftop solar for households across the United States. We integrate empirical household demand data from
17 cities, household-level simulation and optimization models, and downscaled weather data for historic and future climates. We find that climate change will increase the value of rooftop solar to households by up to 19% and increase optimal solar capacities by up to 25% by 2100 under moderate climate change. The second half of the talk explores the global impact of climate change on degradation and reliability of rooftop solar caused by high operating temperatures. International standards set guidelines regarding high operating temperatures, but these standards reflect historic – not future – climates. Our analysis combines bias-corrected climate data with a bottom-up physical-chemical Arrhenius degradation model. We find regions with large expected solar growth, including Southeast Asia and North America, emerge as new hotspots of high temperature risk and reduced reliability for solar PV. Reduced reliability increases the levelized cost of electricity for rooftop solar by up to 30% globally at just 2°C warming. Our work underscores the need for updating energy system standards for future climates.
Biography
Michael grew up in Hershey, Pennsylvania, the Sweetest Place on Earth. His Lab researches how to equitably reduce global and local environmental impacts of energy systems while making those systems robust to future climate change. His research advances energy system models to address new challenges driven by decarbonization, climate adaptation, and equity objectives. He then
applies these models to real-world systems to generate decision-relevant insights that account for engineering, economic, climatic,
and policy features. His current interdisciplinary collaborations include climate scientists, hydrologists, economists, urban planners, epidemiologists, and diverse engineers. Michael has received funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technology Office and Nuclear Energy University Program; U.S. National Science Foundation; Idaho National Laboratory; and University of Michigan’s Graham Institute for Sustainability. He is a Program Faculty at the Institute of Public Utilities; Faculty Affiliate of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Certificate Program at the University of Michigan; and Contributing Author to Chapter 10 of the IPCC’s 6th Annual Review. Prior to his current position, he worked as a Research Engineer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. He received his PhD in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University (’17), MS in Technology and Policy from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (‘14), and BA in Environmental Studies from Washington University in St. Louis (’10).